Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients.

Repeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response to third or fourth vaccination in KTR. We developed, internally and externally validated five different multivariable prediction models of serological response after the third and fourth vaccine dose against SARS-CoV-2 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR. Using 20 candidate predictor variables, we applied statistical and machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularized LR, random forest, and gradient boosted regression trees. For development and internal validation, data from 590 vaccinations were used. External validation was performed in four independent, international validation cohorts comprising 191, 184, 254, and 323 vaccinations, respectively. LASSO-regularized LR performed on the whole development dataset yielded a 20- and 10-variable model, respectively. External validation showed AUC-ROC of 0.840, 0.741, 0.816, and 0.783 for the sparser 10-variable model, yielding an overall performance 0.812. A 10-variable LASSO-regularized LR model predicts vaccination response in KTR with good overall accuracy. Implemented as an online tool, it can guide decisions whether to modulate immunosuppressive therapy before additional active vaccination, or to perform passive immunization to improve protection against COVID-19 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR.

Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients

Repeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response to third or fourth vaccination in KTR. We developed, internally and externally validated five different multivariable prediction models of serological response after the third and fourth vaccine dose against SARS-CoV-2 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR. Using 20 candidate predictor variables, we applied statistical and machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularized LR, random forest, and gradient boosted regression trees. For development and internal validation, data from 590 vaccinations were used. External validation was performed in four independent, international validation cohorts comprising 191, 184, 254, and 323 vaccinations, respectively. LASSO-regularized LR performed on the whole development dataset yielded a 20- and 10-variable model, respectively. External validation showed AUC-ROC of 0.840, 0.741, 0.816, and 0.783 for the sparser 10-variable model, yielding an overall performance 0.812. A 10-variable LASSO-regularized LR model predicts vaccination response in KTR with good overall accuracy. Implemented as an online tool, it can guide decisions whether to modulate immunosuppressive therapy before additional active vaccination, or to perform passive immunization to improve protection against COVID-19 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR.

Association Between Maintenance Immunosuppressive Regimens and COVID-19 Mortality in Kidney Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND: Solid organ transplant recipients are at high risk for fatal forms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We conducted a cohort study among kidney transplant (KT) recipients from the French Solid Organ Transplant COVID-19 Registry to investigate the association between maintenance immunosuppressive drugs and 60-d mortality. METHODS: Data from all KT recipients with COVID-19 included in the French Solid Organ Transplant COVID-19 Registry between February 28, 2020, and December 30, 2020, were retrieved. We evaluated associations between immunosuppressive drugs and death within 60 d using logistic regression, with all baseline characteristics considered to influence outcome or immunosuppressive regimen. The Benjamini-Hochberg correction was used for controlling false positive rate; 40 multiple imputations were performed. Adjusted P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: There were 1451 KT recipients included. Median age was 58 y, and 66.4% were men. Most frequent comorbidities were hypertension (81.9%), diabetes (34.5%), and cardiovascular disease (29.5%). Median time since transplant was 71 mo. Maintenance immunosuppression regimens included calcineurin inhibitors (1295, 89.2%), antimetabolites (1205, 83%), corticosteroids (1094, 75.4%), mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors (144, 9.9%), and belatacept (58, 4.0%). Among 1451 transplant recipients, 201 (13.9%) died within 60 d. Older age and higher baseline serum creatinine were associated with mortality (odds ratios, 1.09 [1.07-1.11] and 1.01 [1.005-1.009], P < 0.001). Corticosteroid-free regimens were associated with a significantly lower risk of death (odds ratio, 0.48 [0.31-0.76]; P = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: Corticosteroid-free regimens were associated with a lower risk of death in KT recipients with COVID-19. Long-term exposure to corticosteroids impairs immune functions and may predispose solid organ transplant recipients to severe forms of COVID-19.

Time-Limited Therapy with Belatacept in Kidney Transplant Recipients.

INTRODUCTION: In kidney transplant recipients, belatacept is usually pursued indefinitely after it has been started. In the setting of the belatacept shortage and after having evaluated the benefit-risk ratio, we established a strategy consisting of time-limited belatacept therapy/transient calcineurin inhibitor withdrawal, whose results are analyzed in that study. METHODS: We considered all the kidney transplant recipients that had been switched from conventional immunosuppressive therapy to belatacept and then for whom belatacept has been withdrawn intentionally. Furthermore, in the first 8 patients, we assessed changes in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) transcriptome using RNAseq before and 3 months after belatacept withdrawal. RESULTS: Over the study period, 28 out of 94 patients had belatacept intentionally withdrawn including 25 (89%) switched to low-dose CNI. One rejection due to poor compliance occurred. The eGFR after 12 months remained stable from 48 ± 19 mL.1.73 m-2 to 46 ± 17 mL.1.73 m-2 (p = 0.68). However, patients that resumed belatacept/withdrew CNIs (n = 10) had a trend towards a better eGFR comparing with the others (n = 15): 54 ± 20 mL.1.73 m-2 vs. eGFR 43 ± 16 mL.1.73 m-2, respectively (p = 0.15). The only factor associated with belatacept resumption was when the withdrawal took place during the COVID-19 outbreak. Transcriptome analysis of PBMCs, did not support rebound in alloimmune response. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underpin the use of belatacept as part of a time-limited therapy, in selected kidney transplant recipients, possibly as an approach to allow efficient vaccination against SARS-CoV-2.

Occurrence of De novo Donor-Specific Antibodies After COVID-19 in Kidney Transplant Recipients Is Low Despite Immunosuppression Modulation.

Introduction: Decreased immunosuppression has been proposed for kidney transplant recipients infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the impact on the alloreactive immune response during and after infection has been poorly investigated. We evaluated the occurrence of antihuman leukocyte antigen (HLA) donor-specific antibodies (DSAs) (post-COVID-19) and rejection episodes after COVID-19 with particular focus on immunosuppression modulation. Methods: Kidney transplant recipients from 2 French institutions had anti-HLA antibody screening before and after COVID-19. Management of immunosuppression, rejection episodes, COVID-19 severity, inflammatory markers, and antiviral therapies were recorded. Results: From 251 recruited patients, 72 were excluded because of COVID-19-related death (n = 25) and incomplete immunologic follow-up (n = 47). Among the remaining 179 included patients, almost half were hospitalized (49.2%). Antimetabolites were interrupted in 47% of patients (82% in hospitalized, median time of resumption of 23 days and in 15% nonhospitalized, median time of resumption of 7 days). Calcineurin inhibitors were interrupted in 12% of patients (all hospitalized, median time of resumption of 11 days). The incidence of post-COVID-19 DSA was 4% (8% and 0% in hospitalized and nonhospitalized, respectively). Allograft rejection occurred in 3 patients (1.7%) and all were hospitalized. Younger age, transplantation <1 year, and preexisting DSA were more frequently observed in patients with post-COVID-19 DSA, whereas inflammatory markers, lymphopenia, and use of antiviral therapies were not. Conclusion: The incidence of post-COVID-19 DSA among COVID-19-positive kidney transplant recipients was low (4%) despite a significant decrease in immunosuppression and was mainly restricted to high-risk immunologic patient's status. COVID-19 severity was not associated with post-COVID-19 DSA and/or rejection.

Impact of Covid-19 on kidney transplant and waiting list patients: Lessons from the first wave of the pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a drastic reduction in kidney transplantation and a profound change in transplant care in France. It is critical for kidney transplant centers to understand the behaviors, concerns and wishes of transplant recipients and waiting list candidates. METHODS: French kidney patients were contacted to answer an online electronic survey at the end of the lockdown. RESULTS: At the end of the first wave of the pandemic in France (11 May 2020), 2112 kidney transplant recipients and 487 candidates answered the survey. More candidates than recipients left their home during the lockdown, mainly for health care (80.1% vs. 69.4%; P<0.001). More candidates than recipients reported being exposed to Covid-19 patients (2.7% vs. 1.2%; P=0.006). Many recipients and even more candidates felt inadequately informed by their transplant center during the pandemic (19.6% vs. 54%; P<0.001). Among candidates, 71.1% preferred to undergo transplant as soon as possible, 19.5% preferred to wait until Covid-19 had left their community, and 9.4% were not sure what to do. CONCLUSIONS: During the Covid-19 pandemic in France, the majority of candidates wished to receive a transplant as soon as possible without waiting until Covid-19 had left their community. Communication between kidney transplant centers and patients must be improved to better understand and serve patients' needs.

IMPact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the moRTAlity of kidney transplant recipients and candidates in a French Nationwide registry sTudy (IMPORTANT).

End stage kidney disease increase the risk of COVID-19 related death but how the kidney replacement strategy should be adapted during the pandemic is unknown. Chronic hemodialysis makes social distancing difficult to achieve. Alternatively, kidney transplantation could increase the severity of COVID-19 due to therapeutic immunosuppression and contribute to saturation of intensive care units. For these reasons, kidney transplantation was suspended in France during the first epidemic wave. Here, we retrospectively evaluated this strategy by comparing the overall and COVID-19 related mortality in kidney transplant recipients and candidates over the last three years. Cross-interrogation of two national registries for the period 1 March and 1 June 2020, identified 275 deaths among the 42812 kidney transplant recipients and 144 deaths among the 16210 candidates. This represents an excess of deaths for both populations, as compared with the same period the two previous years (mean of two previous years: 253 in recipients and 112 in candidates). This difference was integrally explained by COVID-19, which accounted for 44% (122) and 42% (60) of the deaths in recipients and candidates, respectively. Taking into account the size of the two populations and the geographical heterogeneity of virus circulation, we found that the excess of risk of death due to COVID-19 was similar for recipients and candidates in high viral risk area but four-fold higher for candidates in the low viral risk area. Thus, in case of a second epidemic wave, kidney transplantation should be suspended in high viral risk areas but maintained outside those areas, both to reduce the excess of deaths of candidates and avoid wasting precious resources.

An initial report from the French SOT COVID Registry suggests high mortality due to COVID-19 in recipients of kidney transplants.

Notwithstanding the ongoing coronavirus disease-2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, information on its clinical presentation and prognosis in recipients of a kidney transplant remain scanty. The aim of this registry-based observational study was to explore characteristics and clinical outcomes of recipients of kidney transplants included in the French nationwide Registry of Solid Organ Transplant Recipients with Covid-19. Covid-19 was diagnosed in symptomatic patients who had a positive PCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 or having typical lung lesions on imaging. Clinical and laboratory characteristics, management of immunosuppression, treatment for Covid-19, and clinical outcomes (hospitalization, admission to intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or death) were recorded. Risk factors for severe disease or death were determined. Of the 279 patients, 243 were admitted to hospital and 36 were managed at home. The median age of hospitalized patients was 61.6 years; most had comorbidities (hypertension, 90.1%; overweight, 63.8%; diabetes, 41.3%; cardiovascular disease, 36.2%). Fever, cough, dyspnea, and diarrhea were the most common symptoms on admission. Laboratory findings revealed mild inflammation frequently accompanied by lymphopenia. Immunosuppressive drugs were generally withdrawn (calcineurin inhibitors: 28.7%; antimetabolites: 70.8%). Treatment was mainly based on hydroxychloroquine (24.7%), antiviral drugs (7.8%), and tocilizumab (5.3%). Severe Covid-19 occurred in 106 patients (46%). Forty-three hospitalized patients died (30-day mortality 22.8%). Multivariable analysis identified overweight, fever, and dyspnea as independent risk factors for severe disease, whereas age over 60 years, cardiovascular disease, and dyspnea were independently associated with mortality. Thus, Covid-19 in recipients of kidney transplants portends a high mortality rate. Proper management of immunosuppression and tailored treatment of this population remain challenging.

Is COVID-19 infection more severe in kidney transplant recipients?

There are no studies which have compared the risk of severe COVID-19 and related mortality between transplant recipients and nontransplant patients. We enrolled two groups of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, that is, kidney transplant recipients (KTR) from the French Registry of Solid Organ Transplant (n = 306) and a single-center cohort of nontransplant patients (n = 795). An analysis was performed among subgroups matched for age and risk factors for severe COVID-19 or mortality. Severe COVID-19 was defined as admission (or transfer) to an intensive care unit, need for mechanical ventilation, or death. Transplant recipients were younger and had more comorbidities compared to nontransplant patients. They presented with higher creatinine levels and developed more episodes of acute kidney injury. After matching, the 30-day cumulative incidence of severe COVID-19 did not differ between KTR and nontransplant patients; however, 30-day COVID-19-related mortality was significantly higher in KTR (17.9% vs 11.4%, respectively, p = .038). Age >60 years, cardiovascular disease, dyspnea, fever, lymphopenia, and C-reactive protein (CRP) were associated with severe COVID-19 in univariate analysis, whereas transplant status and serum creatinine levels were not. Age >60 years, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, CRP >60 mg/L, lymphopenia, kidney transplant status (HR = 1.55), and creatinine level >115 µmol/L (HR = 2.32) were associated with COVID-19-related mortality in univariate analysis. In multivariable analysis, cardiovascular disease, dyspnea, and fever were associated with severe disease, whereas age >60 years, cardiovascular disease, dyspnea, fever, and creatinine level>115 µmol/L retained their independent associations with mortality. KTR had a higher COVID-19-related mortality compared to nontransplant hospitalized patients.